The Russia scholar Stephen Kotkin says that Ukraine must exchange Russia-held territory for security guarantees. But the U.S. must also threaten Putin’s hold on power.
Throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine, David Remnick has talked with Stephen Kotkin, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who is deeply informed on U.S.-Russia relations, and a biographer of Stalin. With the Ukrainian counter-offensive proceeding very slowly, Kotkin says that Ukraine is unlikely to “win the peace” on the battlefield; an armistice on Zelensky’s terms—although they may be morally correct—would require the defeat of Russia itself. Realistically, he thinks, Ukraine must come to accept some loss of territory in exchange for security guarantees. And, without heavy political pressure from the U.S., Kotkin tells David Remnick, no amount of military aid would be sufficient. “We took regime change off the table,” Kotkin notes regretfully. “That’s so much bigger than the F-16s or the tanks or the long-range missiles because that’s the variable . . . .When he’s scared that his regime could go down, he’ll cut and run. And if he’s not scared about his regime,he'll do the sanctions busting. He’ll do everything he’s doing because it’s with impunity.”